Sunday, January 7, 2024

MAYBANK

 Long term Price Chart


MAYBANK price movements is more stable than KLCI.

4 dip/crash periods since 2000:
1. Tech crash (2000-2001) from peak of 8.67 down to 4.41.
2. GFC crash (2007-2008, Mar 2009 bottom) from peak of 9.91 to 3.54.
3. 2013-2016 dip from peak of 10.8 to 7.5.
4. 2018 peak to Covid bottom, from peak of 11.08 to 7.

Current price of RM9 is in the middle of the last price range (RM7 to RM11).

LT Per Share Statistics


For FYE2023, I think MAYBANK can make 10 year high to edge past 76 sen per share.
It's not a bad quality stock - EPS and DPS CAGR is not negative, but its NAPS grows by 3%+ per annum.

LT Dividend Payout Ratio


Dividend payout ratio ranges from 70% to 90% averaging say 80%+.  The retained earnings helps grow the NAPS.  There are some gaps/leakages, as NOSH grows.

LT Dividend Yield


LT Dividend Yield ranges from say 5.5% to 7.5%, or 6% to 7% most of the years.

Key Takeaways

This is a real business for the long term - we can validate this from our everyday experience.
The stock price is relative subdued, relative to KLCI index - it's a major constituent.
Past 24 years, there are 4 periods when Mr Market was clearly fearful - from Tech Crash 2000s, GFC crash 2008, 2013-16 dip and Covid bottom - all fearful times.   

A plan to accumulate during these fearful times will prove rewarding, to enhance LT Price gains.
- Relying on Dividend Yield alone to earn say 6.5% per annum is not bad - it does appear to edge EPF a little bit.
- However, if you can supplement to own this stock when Mr Market is feeling fearful, you can enhance Total Returns to around 9% per annum, or even higher depending on how good is your market timing.

This becomes common sense, once you understand its long term price and company history.

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